Thur 9/24

MLB

Marlins at Braves 7:10 

Lopez vs Anderson

Pick: ATL -169 Small

Not a great number but hopefully easy money here as the baseball regular season nears the end.  

Braves scored 29 runs in last start against Lopez and Marlins

Lopez 5.11 ERA last 5 vs ATL

Lopez has allowed 11 runs in his last 2 starts at ATL

Lopez 5.05 ERA career vs ATL

Lopez 0-3, 12.00 ERA at SunTrust Park

 Wed 9/23

 MLB

MIL at CIN 6:40 est

Houser vs Bauer

Pick: CIN -167

Houser 6.68 ERA last 7 starts

Houser 6.23 ERA last 5 starts vs CIN

CIN batting .395, .814 SLG vs Houser

Bauer 2.17 ERA last 7 starts

MIL batting .203 vs Bauer

MLB

CHW at CLE 6:10 est

Giolito vs Bieber

Pick: CHW Ov 2.5 (-130) Small

Bieber has been very good for Cleveland.  However, the Sox have been able to hit him better than most other teams, batting .316 and Slugging .605 against him.  Bieber has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts vs Chicago.  The Cleveland bullpen has a 5.48 ERA the last 10 games.

MLB

PHI at WASH 6:05 est

Eflin vs Fedde

PICK: WAS Ov 4 (-105) Small

Edit: Ended up with Nats Ov 3.5

Eflin 4.87 Road ERA

Eflin 5.12 ERA in night games

Opponents batting .333 vs Eflin in road starts this season

WASH has scored 5 or more runs in each of last 3 games Eflin has started

WASH batting .323, .569 SLG vs Eflin

Eflin 4.81 career ERA at Nationals Park

Eflin 5.34 career ERA on the road

PHI bullpen 7.57 ERA last 10 games

WASH has scored 33 runs in last 4 games

Friday 9/18

Berngals +7 wins for Members Thursday night

Still waiting on some info for TOR/PHI Game 2 as well as MIA/WAS double header.   There will be some additions to Personal Picks file later for games for Subscribers

MLB

Phillies vs  Blue Jays 4:05   Game 1

Eflin vs Ray

Pick: TOR Ov 2.5 (-148) Small

7 inning game

Game is in Philly but Toronto is the home team apparently in Game 1

Toronto needs 3 runs here

Eflin has allowed 3 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts

Eflin 6.60 ERA last 3 games

PHI bullpen 7.29 ERA last 10 games

Monday 9/14 

Will tread lightly here but I see reasons to go after all both of these.  Hate the 7 inning games.  .  

MLB

Phillies at Marlins

Velasquez vs Lopez 4:10 est

Pick MIA OV 4 (-104) Lean

MIA batting .360, slugging .680 vs Velasquez

PHI bullpen 9.37 ERA last 10 games

Opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of last 6 Velasquez starts

Velasquez 9.64 ERA last 5 starts vs MIA

Velasquez allowed 4 or more runs each of last 4 starts vs MIA

MIA has scored 5 or more runs in 4 of last 5 Velasquez starts

MIA has scored 5 or more runs in 7 of last 9 games overall

MLB

Game 1

Cardinals at Brewers

Kim vs Lindblom

Pick: STL (+102) Lean

7 inning game so downgrade to a LEAN

Kim 0.44 ERA in 4 starts

Lindblom 1-3, 6.46 ERA last 7 starts

Lindblom 6.92 ERA at home

Saturday 9/12  

MLB

Mariners at Diamondbacks 8:10 est

Sheffield vs Gallen 

Pick: ARI (-160) Lean

This one is coming down so you might monitor price at your sportsbook and see if you will get a better number.  I have not fired yet as I am waiting on the price to come down more

Really hard to like ARI now as this big of a favorite.  Gallen has been solid though and Sheffield has a 7.24 ERA in 3 road starts, plus the Seattle bullpen has an ERA of 7.47 the last 10 games

MLB
Red Sox at Rays 6:40 est

Eovaldi vs Glasnow

Rays Over 4.5 (+105) Small

Eovaldi 5.03 ERA, 8 HR allowed last 7 starts

Eovaldi 5.33 ERA last 5 vs TB

Eovaldi 2-5, 5.66 ERA career vs TB

Eovaldi 4.67 ERA career at Tropicana Field

Eovaldi 6.49 road ERA

Eovaldi 5.89 ERA in night games 

BOS bullpen 8.59 ERA last 10 games

TB batting .356 vs Eovaldi

Rays have scored 5 or more runs in 3 of last 4 starts vs Eovaldi

Rays have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of 8 meetings vs BOS this season

TB #7 in MLB in runs scored

Friday 9/11

MLB

Tigers at White Sox  8:10 pm

Mize vs Giolito

Pick: Chicago Ov 4.5 (139) Small

Teams have scored 5 or more in 3 of 4 starts by Mize

Sox have scored 5 or more in 6 of last 7 starts by Giolito vs DET

DET bullpen 7.77 ERA last 10 games

Sox have scored 5 or more in last 6 meetings

Tue 9/8

 MLB

White Sox at Pirates 7:05 est

Cease vs Musgrove

Pick: CHW -143 Small

PIT lost 5 of last 6 starts by Musgrove

Musgrove 6.62 ERA in 4 starts this season

CHW hitting .383, Slugging .787 vs Musgrove

Monday 9/7

3-0 Subscriber Picks for MLB Sunday

I think this will be the only Subscriber Play today.

MLB

Marlins at Braves 1:10

Urena vs Anderson

Pick: ATL -1.5 (-108) Small

Urena has allowed 11 runs in his last 2 starts vs ATL

Urena 4.78 career ERA on the road

Urena 2-8, 6.64 ERA vs ATL

-1.5 has hit for ATL in last 5 vs Urena

-1.5 has hit for ATL in their last 6 wins

Sunday 9/6 MLB

1-1 Subscriber Picks for Saturday

3-1 Personal Picks/Props

MLB

Diamondbacks at Giants 4:05

Young vs Cueto

Pick: SF -137  Lean

Young has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts

Young 5.17 ERA on the road

ARI bullpen 5.54 ERA last 10 games

SF batting .302 last 10 games

Cueto 3-0, 2.56 ERA last 5 vs ARI

Cueto allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of last 4 starts

ARI batting .215 (23 for 107) vs Cueto

ARI 2 wins in last 18 games overall

MLB

Rangers at Mariners 4:10 pm

Lyles vs Dunn

Pick SEA -143 Full Game -143 Small

SEA batting .302 vs Lyles

Lyles 10.38 ERA on the road

Lyles 12.46 ERA last 3 starts

Lyles has allowed 26 runs in last 5 starts

Lyles allowed 8 runs on 11 hits on 8/22 at SEA

Dunn has allowed 2 runs in 2 starts vs TEX this season

TEX 4 for 28 vs Dunn

MLB

Cardinals vs Cubs 7:08 pm

Hudson vs Lester

Pick: STL -110  Small

Hudson has allowed 2 runs or less in last 4 starts

Hudson 1.53 ERA last 3 starts

CHC batting .190 vs Hudson

Lester has allowed 4 or more runs in his last 3 starts vs STL

Lester has allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 starts

Lester has allowed 34 hits in his last 20 IP

Opposing teams have scored 6 or more runs in Lester’s last 4 starts

Lester 8.04 ERA at home

STL batting .304 vs Lester

Saturday 9/5

Heat +6 wins for only Subscriber Play on Friday.   Subscribe to receive ALL Picks + NFL Win Totals! 1 yr $59   https://thecashmanwins.com/subscribe

MLB 

Rangers at Mariners 9:10 pm

Gibson vs Sheffield

Pick: SEA First 5 Innings (-140) Small

Seattle has won the last 4 meetings

Gibson 5.40 ERA last 5 vs SEA
Gibson 6.16 ERA last 7 starts

SEA batting .314 vs Gibson

Gibson 5.19 ERA on the road

Sheffield 2.70 ERA in 3 home starts

Sheffield 6 IP, 1 ER in home start vs TEX on 8/22

TEX batting .227 last 10 vs LHP

Update #1

10:45 AM

MLB

Reds at Pirates 7:05 pm

DeSclafani vs Williams

Pick: Pirates Ov 3.5 (-130) Small

Pirates need to score 4 runs here

PIT batting .387, Slugging .763 vs DeSclafani

DeSclafani 8.61 ERA last 5 vs PIT

DeSclafani 4.26 ERA career at PNC Park

DeSclafani 2-7, 5.35 ERA career vs PIT

CIN has lost 9 of last 10 starts by DeSclafani vs PIT

CIN bullpen 5.40 ERA last 10 games

Thursday 9/3

7-0 on Wednesday Picks and Props for Subscribers

Update #1 

2:42 pm

MLB

Padres at Angels 7:10 est

Clevinger vs Heaney

Pick: SD -139/Small 

Clevinger makes his first start for SD.

Clevinger 4-0, 2.94 ERA career vs LAA

Clevinger 2-0, 0.79 ERA career at Angels Stadium

Angels lineup .233 career vs Clevinger

SD batting .324 last 10 games, .364 vs LHP last 10 games

Heaney allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of last 4 starts

LAA bullpen 5.45 ERA last 10 games

SD VS LAA Player Props

Profar Ov 0.5 Hits (-150) Lean

5 for 13 career vs Heaney

Hitting .615 (8 for 13) last 7 days

Machado Ov 0.5 Hits (-220) Lean

Not a great return, just hoping for some easy money here

Batting .381 last 7 days

3 for 8, 2 HR career vs Heaney

Wednesday 9/2

We finished 3-1 on Tuesday.

Indians at Royals 8:05 est

McKenzie vs Junis

Pick: CLE -160/Small

Pick: Lindor Over 1.5 Hits (+189) Lean-  Lindor is 16 for 32, 4 HR vs Junis.  Lindor was 2 for 5 last night.  He needs 2 hits tonight

Junis 1-4, 6.75 ERA last 5 vs CLE

Junis 6.48 ERA last 7 starts

KC batting .228 last 10 games

Cubs at Pirates 7:05

Hendricks vs Musgrove

Pick: Frazier Over 0.5 Hits (-230) Lean

Not really value here but hoping this is just easy money.  Frazier is 7 for 16 (.438) career vs Hendricks.  

Tigers at Brewers 7:40

Turnbull vs Houser

Houser has not been sharp recently and neither has the Brewers bullpen.  These guys just need to record 1 hit

Pick: Candelario Over 0.5 Hits (-167) Lean  - Batting .417 last 7 days

Pick: Schoop Over 0.5 Hits (-225) Lean- Just looking for easy money.  Batting .417 last 7 days

Pick: Stewart Over 0.5 Hits (-134) Lean- Batting .375 last 7 days, 2 for 3 last night

Giants at Rockies 3:10

Webb vs Freeland

Pick: Longoria Ov 1.5 hits (+145)/Lean

.315 career hitter at Coors Field

.348 (8 for 23) last 7 days, .396 last 14 days

.355 vs LHP this season

Tue 9/1

Tigers at Brewers 7:40 EST

Fulmer vs Lindblom

Pick: Tigers Team Total Over 3.5 (-130) Small

My offshore book at BetDSI has this at 3.5 and I just caught it.  Have not checked US books.  Very reasonable to believe that Detroit can score at least 4 runs in this one.  

Lindbloom 5.93 ERA last 7 starts

Lindbloom 6.92 ERA last 3 starts

Teams have scored 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games started by Lindbloom dating back to KBO last season

MIL bullpen 5.80 ERA last 10 games

MIL allowed 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games

DET batting .287 vs RHP last 10 games

Mets at Orioles 7:35 EST

Jurado vs Wojciechowski

Pick: BAL +0.5 First 5 (-105)  LEAN

Near even money on a run line dog is always interesting. 

Mets are #4 in batting in MLB but only 21st in runs scored.  Both teams have similar records and I think the pitching matchup favors Baltimore though I don’t love Wojciechowski.  Wojciechowski allowed 5 runs in his first start but has not allowed more than 3 runs in his 5 starts since. Now he’s only getting through 4 or 5 innings but if he can stay on that pace of 3 runs, Baltimore could very well get to Jurado based on his past.  

Will take a stab at Baltimore here, very small though

Jurado allowed 6 or more runs in each of last 4 starts (2019)

Opponents batted .304 vs Jurado last season

BAL 7-2 last 9 interleague games

BAL 8th in MLB in hitting

Indians at Royals 8:05 EST

Plesac vs Harvey

Pick: CLE -195  Medium

I would love to hammer the run line here  but Cleveland’s bats just have not been consistent.  Been a slow last few days so just want to get some money here.

Plesac 3-0, 2.11 ERA last 4 starts vs KC

CLE 10-2 last 12 road games

CLE bullpen 1.66 ERA on the road

CLE 5-0 last 5 series in Game 2

Harvey 8.07 ERA last 7 starts

Cardinals at Reds 6:40 EST

Kim vs Gray

Pick: Under 9 (-121) LEAN

The bullpens do worry me so we have downgraded this to a lean but a lot of other things to like here.

Kim 0.57 ERA in first 3 starts

Kim has not allowed more than 2 runs in last 7 starts dating back to KBO last season

Opponents batting .180 vs Kim this season

CIN batting .175 last 10 games vs LHP

Gray 1.07 ERA at home

Gray 1.44 ERA in night games this season

Gray 1.59 career ERA vs STL

Gray 12-4, 2.58 ERA career at Great American Ballpark

9 or under has hit in 8 of last 10 starts by Gray

9 or under has hit in all 4 of Gray’s career starts vs STL

Opponents batting .180 vs Gray this season

STL batting .214 vs Gray lifetime