image108
Free Picks

Free Picks are are plays that I do see an edge for a side but it just is not solid enough to send to paying Subscribers.  


I post these for the public for transparency purposes.  


These are always VERY SMALL plays.  




Site Content

image109


Tuesday update in progress.  Check back.


 

 (Bet Type always a Lean unless noted otherwise)


College Basketball (MEAC Tournament)


UMES vs Delaware St    6 pm

Pick: DSU -119 


Two near identically bad teams when you look at records.  UMES 5-26, 4-14 conf, Del St 5-25, 4-14 conf.

Teams won on each other’s home court this season.  UMES won by 2 on Feb 2, DSU won by 21 at UMES in Feb 29, much more recent and maybe a more accurate representation of how teams are playing right now.


UMES lost 5 straight, 0-5 ATS 

DSU has won 2 straight road games, 6-1 ATS last 7 overall

DSU shooting 46.2 % compared to UMES 33.5 % last 5 

DSU scores 71.9 ppg on the road (84 ppg last 5), UMES scores 59 ppg on the road (60 last 5)



 

#2 Free/Personal Pick


College Basketball (CAA Tournament)


Northeastern vs Hofstra O/U 134.5  7 pm

Pick: Over 134/Spare Change

I don’t do a lot of totals for basketball.  I like them more in CFB and MLB than in basketball.  

This total has dropped 7 points since the open.  Haven’t found a reason for this other than people possibly pounding trend of the Under going 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.  That stat can be misleading if you don’t dig deeper.  


Despite the Under cashing frequently in this series, these teams have gone Over 134.5 in their last 9 meetings.  These teams combined for 146 points in each of their 2 meetings this season.  


Hofstra has scored 75 or more points in 6 of their last 7 road/neutral site games

Hofstra shooting 46% from 3 pt last 5 games

Hofstra shot 55%, Northeastern 49.1 % in first meeting



 

#3 College Basketball (Horizon League Tournament)


UIC vs Northern KY 7 pm

Pick: UIC +5.5 -128 (Bought 1 point)


UIC playing really well right now and have a 30 point road win over NKU this season.  UIC is coming off of a 17 pt neutral site win over Wright St who beat NKU at NKU by 2 pts on 2/28

UIC 6-2 ATS last 8

UIC 6-1 ATS last 7 as a dog

NKU 2-4 ATS last 6

NKU 0-4 ATS last 4 following SU win

Last 5 games strongly favors UIC for me