Thur 9/24
MLB
Marlins at Braves 7:10
Lopez vs Anderson
Pick: ATL -169 Small
Not a great number but hopefully easy money here as the baseball regular season nears the end.
Braves scored 29 runs in last start against Lopez and Marlins
Lopez 5.11 ERA last 5 vs ATL
Lopez has allowed 11 runs in his last 2 starts at ATL
Lopez 5.05 ERA career vs ATL
Lopez 0-3, 12.00 ERA at SunTrust Park
Wed 9/23
MLB
MIL at CIN 6:40 est
Houser vs Bauer
Pick: CIN -167
Houser 6.68 ERA last 7 starts
Houser 6.23 ERA last 5 starts vs CIN
CIN batting .395, .814 SLG vs Houser
Bauer 2.17 ERA last 7 starts
MIL batting .203 vs Bauer
MLB
CHW at CLE 6:10 est
Giolito vs Bieber
Pick: CHW Ov 2.5 (-130) Small
Bieber has been very good for Cleveland. However, the Sox have been able to hit him better than most other teams, batting .316 and Slugging .605 against him. Bieber has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts vs Chicago. The Cleveland bullpen has a 5.48 ERA the last 10 games.
MLB
PHI at WASH 6:05 est
Eflin vs Fedde
PICK: WAS Ov 4 (-105) Small
Edit: Ended up with Nats Ov 3.5
Eflin 4.87 Road ERA
Eflin 5.12 ERA in night games
Opponents batting .333 vs Eflin in road starts this season
WASH has scored 5 or more runs in each of last 3 games Eflin has started
WASH batting .323, .569 SLG vs Eflin
Eflin 4.81 career ERA at Nationals Park
Eflin 5.34 career ERA on the road
PHI bullpen 7.57 ERA last 10 games
WASH has scored 33 runs in last 4 games
Friday 9/18
Berngals +7 wins for Members Thursday night
Still waiting on some info for TOR/PHI Game 2 as well as MIA/WAS double header. There will be some additions to Personal Picks file later for games for Subscribers
MLB
Phillies vs Blue Jays 4:05 Game 1
Eflin vs Ray
Pick: TOR Ov 2.5 (-148) Small
7 inning game
Game is in Philly but Toronto is the home team apparently in Game 1
Toronto needs 3 runs here
Eflin has allowed 3 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts
Eflin 6.60 ERA last 3 games
PHI bullpen 7.29 ERA last 10 games
Monday 9/14
Will tread lightly here but I see reasons to go after all both of these. Hate the 7 inning games. .
MLB
Phillies at Marlins
Velasquez vs Lopez 4:10 est
Pick MIA OV 4 (-104) Lean
MIA batting .360, slugging .680 vs Velasquez
PHI bullpen 9.37 ERA last 10 games
Opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of last 6 Velasquez starts
Velasquez 9.64 ERA last 5 starts vs MIA
Velasquez allowed 4 or more runs each of last 4 starts vs MIA
MIA has scored 5 or more runs in 4 of last 5 Velasquez starts
MIA has scored 5 or more runs in 7 of last 9 games overall
MLB
Game 1
Cardinals at Brewers
Kim vs Lindblom
Pick: STL (+102) Lean
7 inning game so downgrade to a LEAN
Kim 0.44 ERA in 4 starts
Lindblom 1-3, 6.46 ERA last 7 starts
Lindblom 6.92 ERA at home
Saturday 9/12
MLB
Mariners at Diamondbacks 8:10 est
Sheffield vs Gallen
Pick: ARI (-160) Lean
This one is coming down so you might monitor price at your sportsbook and see if you will get a better number. I have not fired yet as I am waiting on the price to come down more
Really hard to like ARI now as this big of a favorite. Gallen has been solid though and Sheffield has a 7.24 ERA in 3 road starts, plus the Seattle bullpen has an ERA of 7.47 the last 10 games
MLB
Red Sox at Rays 6:40 est
Eovaldi vs Glasnow
Rays Over 4.5 (+105) Small
Eovaldi 5.03 ERA, 8 HR allowed last 7 starts
Eovaldi 5.33 ERA last 5 vs TB
Eovaldi 2-5, 5.66 ERA career vs TB
Eovaldi 4.67 ERA career at Tropicana Field
Eovaldi 6.49 road ERA
Eovaldi 5.89 ERA in night games
BOS bullpen 8.59 ERA last 10 games
TB batting .356 vs Eovaldi
Rays have scored 5 or more runs in 3 of last 4 starts vs Eovaldi
Rays have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of 8 meetings vs BOS this season
TB #7 in MLB in runs scored
Friday 9/11
MLB
Tigers at White Sox 8:10 pm
Mize vs Giolito
Pick: Chicago Ov 4.5 (139) Small
Teams have scored 5 or more in 3 of 4 starts by Mize
Sox have scored 5 or more in 6 of last 7 starts by Giolito vs DET
DET bullpen 7.77 ERA last 10 games
Sox have scored 5 or more in last 6 meetings
Tue 9/8
MLB
White Sox at Pirates 7:05 est
Cease vs Musgrove
Pick: CHW -143 Small
PIT lost 5 of last 6 starts by Musgrove
Musgrove 6.62 ERA in 4 starts this season
CHW hitting .383, Slugging .787 vs Musgrove
Monday 9/7
3-0 Subscriber Picks for MLB Sunday
I think this will be the only Subscriber Play today.
MLB
Marlins at Braves 1:10
Urena vs Anderson
Pick: ATL -1.5 (-108) Small
Urena has allowed 11 runs in his last 2 starts vs ATL
Urena 4.78 career ERA on the road
Urena 2-8, 6.64 ERA vs ATL
-1.5 has hit for ATL in last 5 vs Urena
-1.5 has hit for ATL in their last 6 wins
Sunday 9/6 MLB
1-1 Subscriber Picks for Saturday
3-1 Personal Picks/Props
MLB
Diamondbacks at Giants 4:05
Young vs Cueto
Pick: SF -137 Lean
Young has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts
Young 5.17 ERA on the road
ARI bullpen 5.54 ERA last 10 games
SF batting .302 last 10 games
Cueto 3-0, 2.56 ERA last 5 vs ARI
Cueto allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of last 4 starts
ARI batting .215 (23 for 107) vs Cueto
ARI 2 wins in last 18 games overall
MLB
Rangers at Mariners 4:10 pm
Lyles vs Dunn
Pick SEA -143 Full Game -143 Small
SEA batting .302 vs Lyles
Lyles 10.38 ERA on the road
Lyles 12.46 ERA last 3 starts
Lyles has allowed 26 runs in last 5 starts
Lyles allowed 8 runs on 11 hits on 8/22 at SEA
Dunn has allowed 2 runs in 2 starts vs TEX this season
TEX 4 for 28 vs Dunn
MLB
Cardinals vs Cubs 7:08 pm
Hudson vs Lester
Pick: STL -110 Small
Hudson has allowed 2 runs or less in last 4 starts
Hudson 1.53 ERA last 3 starts
CHC batting .190 vs Hudson
Lester has allowed 4 or more runs in his last 3 starts vs STL
Lester has allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 starts
Lester has allowed 34 hits in his last 20 IP
Opposing teams have scored 6 or more runs in Lester’s last 4 starts
Lester 8.04 ERA at home
STL batting .304 vs Lester
Saturday 9/5
Heat +6 wins for only Subscriber Play on Friday. Subscribe to receive ALL Picks + NFL Win Totals! 1 yr $59 https://thecashmanwins.com/subscribe
MLB
Rangers at Mariners 9:10 pm
Gibson vs Sheffield
Pick: SEA First 5 Innings (-140) Small
Seattle has won the last 4 meetings
Gibson 5.40 ERA last 5 vs SEA
Gibson 6.16 ERA last 7 starts
SEA batting .314 vs Gibson
Gibson 5.19 ERA on the road
Sheffield 2.70 ERA in 3 home starts
Sheffield 6 IP, 1 ER in home start vs TEX on 8/22
TEX batting .227 last 10 vs LHP
Update #1
10:45 AM
MLB
Reds at Pirates 7:05 pm
DeSclafani vs Williams
Pick: Pirates Ov 3.5 (-130) Small
Pirates need to score 4 runs here
PIT batting .387, Slugging .763 vs DeSclafani
DeSclafani 8.61 ERA last 5 vs PIT
DeSclafani 4.26 ERA career at PNC Park
DeSclafani 2-7, 5.35 ERA career vs PIT
CIN has lost 9 of last 10 starts by DeSclafani vs PIT
CIN bullpen 5.40 ERA last 10 games
Thursday 9/3
7-0 on Wednesday Picks and Props for Subscribers
Update #1
2:42 pm
MLB
Padres at Angels 7:10 est
Clevinger vs Heaney
Pick: SD -139/Small
Clevinger makes his first start for SD.
Clevinger 4-0, 2.94 ERA career vs LAA
Clevinger 2-0, 0.79 ERA career at Angels Stadium
Angels lineup .233 career vs Clevinger
SD batting .324 last 10 games, .364 vs LHP last 10 games
Heaney allowed 4 or more runs in 3 of last 4 starts
LAA bullpen 5.45 ERA last 10 games
SD VS LAA Player Props
Profar Ov 0.5 Hits (-150) Lean
5 for 13 career vs Heaney
Hitting .615 (8 for 13) last 7 days
Machado Ov 0.5 Hits (-220) Lean
Not a great return, just hoping for some easy money here
Batting .381 last 7 days
3 for 8, 2 HR career vs Heaney
Wednesday 9/2
We finished 3-1 on Tuesday.
Indians at Royals 8:05 est
McKenzie vs Junis
Pick: CLE -160/Small
Pick: Lindor Over 1.5 Hits (+189) Lean- Lindor is 16 for 32, 4 HR vs Junis. Lindor was 2 for 5 last night. He needs 2 hits tonight
Junis 1-4, 6.75 ERA last 5 vs CLE
Junis 6.48 ERA last 7 starts
KC batting .228 last 10 games
Cubs at Pirates 7:05
Hendricks vs Musgrove
Pick: Frazier Over 0.5 Hits (-230) Lean
Not really value here but hoping this is just easy money. Frazier is 7 for 16 (.438) career vs Hendricks.
Tigers at Brewers 7:40
Turnbull vs Houser
Houser has not been sharp recently and neither has the Brewers bullpen. These guys just need to record 1 hit
Pick: Candelario Over 0.5 Hits (-167) Lean - Batting .417 last 7 days
Pick: Schoop Over 0.5 Hits (-225) Lean- Just looking for easy money. Batting .417 last 7 days
Pick: Stewart Over 0.5 Hits (-134) Lean- Batting .375 last 7 days, 2 for 3 last night
Giants at Rockies 3:10
Webb vs Freeland
Pick: Longoria Ov 1.5 hits (+145)/Lean
.315 career hitter at Coors Field
.348 (8 for 23) last 7 days, .396 last 14 days
.355 vs LHP this season
Tue 9/1
Tigers at Brewers 7:40 EST
Fulmer vs Lindblom
Pick: Tigers Team Total Over 3.5 (-130) Small
My offshore book at BetDSI has this at 3.5 and I just caught it. Have not checked US books. Very reasonable to believe that Detroit can score at least 4 runs in this one.
Lindbloom 5.93 ERA last 7 starts
Lindbloom 6.92 ERA last 3 starts
Teams have scored 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games started by Lindbloom dating back to KBO last season
MIL bullpen 5.80 ERA last 10 games
MIL allowed 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games
DET batting .287 vs RHP last 10 games
Mets at Orioles 7:35 EST
Jurado vs Wojciechowski
Pick: BAL +0.5 First 5 (-105) LEAN
Near even money on a run line dog is always interesting.
Mets are #4 in batting in MLB but only 21st in runs scored. Both teams have similar records and I think the pitching matchup favors Baltimore though I don’t love Wojciechowski. Wojciechowski allowed 5 runs in his first start but has not allowed more than 3 runs in his 5 starts since. Now he’s only getting through 4 or 5 innings but if he can stay on that pace of 3 runs, Baltimore could very well get to Jurado based on his past.
Will take a stab at Baltimore here, very small though
Jurado allowed 6 or more runs in each of last 4 starts (2019)
Opponents batted .304 vs Jurado last season
BAL 7-2 last 9 interleague games
BAL 8th in MLB in hitting
Indians at Royals 8:05 EST
Plesac vs Harvey
Pick: CLE -195 Medium
I would love to hammer the run line here but Cleveland’s bats just have not been consistent. Been a slow last few days so just want to get some money here.
Plesac 3-0, 2.11 ERA last 4 starts vs KC
CLE 10-2 last 12 road games
CLE bullpen 1.66 ERA on the road
CLE 5-0 last 5 series in Game 2
Harvey 8.07 ERA last 7 starts
Cardinals at Reds 6:40 EST
Kim vs Gray
Pick: Under 9 (-121) LEAN
The bullpens do worry me so we have downgraded this to a lean but a lot of other things to like here.
Kim 0.57 ERA in first 3 starts
Kim has not allowed more than 2 runs in last 7 starts dating back to KBO last season
Opponents batting .180 vs Kim this season
CIN batting .175 last 10 games vs LHP
Gray 1.07 ERA at home
Gray 1.44 ERA in night games this season
Gray 1.59 career ERA vs STL
Gray 12-4, 2.58 ERA career at Great American Ballpark
9 or under has hit in 8 of last 10 starts by Gray
9 or under has hit in all 4 of Gray’s career starts vs STL
Opponents batting .180 vs Gray this season
STL batting .214 vs Gray lifetime
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